🌳 Probability Tree Builder — Branches, Marginals and the Bayes Flip

Name the two first-branch events and their conditionals, and the whole tree draws itself: every path probability, the marginal for each second-stage outcome, and the famous flip — P(A | B) computed from the same picture, in reversed order. Frequency view (“out of 1,000”) included, because it turns exam-trick conditional questions into simple counting.

The tree

right = 0.99

Right-hand second-stage branches are automatic complements (1 − q).

Editing recomputes instantly.

Keep probabilities between 0 and 1 — the fields clamp and tell you when they don't.

—P(B) = P(A)·P(B|A) + P(Aᶜ)·P(B|Aᶜ)
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pathproductprobabilityper 1,000